“Everything that Trump has ever been accused of, has come out to be false,” said Richard Holton II, 65, of Beaver Creek, Ohio. “It’s all made up,” Holton stated. “He can’t get a fair trial there, and it’s all fake.” Holton’s sentiment is indicative of a widespread view among Republican voters that the charges against Former President Trump are politically motivated and fraudulent.

Trump is facing four criminal cases and a total of 91 felony charges across numerous states for charges related to hush-money payments, keeping classified documents, and attempting to overturn the 2020 election, among other activities.

Despite these charges, Trump has remained ahead of his challengers in the Republican presidential primary field. In fact, the indictments have expanded Trump’s lead. The Washington Post reported that during Trump’s first indictment, his hush-money case, he had a 14% lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Three months later, after Trump was indicted in the classified documents case, his lead rose to 30 points over DeSantis. Lastly, after the indictments in both Washington, D.C., and Georgia, Trump’s lead soared to 41 percentage points over DeSantis. The mishaps of the DeSantis campaign have certainly played a role in this gap, but it’s clear the former president gained momentum from these indictments. Furthermore, the day before Trump’s first indictment, March 29, 2023, FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average for the Republican primary found Trump at 46.8 percent. Trump was arraigned on April 4, 2023, and by April 10, his polling average jumped to 54.4 percent. 

The increasing support following the indictments is not just evident in polling: the Trump campaign has benefited financially. According to Politico, in the three days after Trump was booked at the Fulton County Jail in Georgia, he raised $7.1 million. On the day after the booking alone, the campaign had its highest-grossing day to date, bringing in $4.18 million.

The former president has managed to turn the indictments into a win. I believe this momentum will continue, even if he is convicted. 

The loyalty and unwavering support for the former president by the Republican base should not be underestimated. Even with a conviction, the impact on voters’ opinions of Trump is likely to be minimal, as many voters have made up their minds about Trump years ago. Trump has already served a term as president, so voters know what kind of a president he is. He has faced countless controversies, including two impeachments and inciting an insurrection on the Capitol. Even so, he remains the frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary. If his supporters have not yet been deterred by his controversies, it is unlikely that a conviction will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Trump is experienced in navigating these controversies with minimal damage, and it appears that he will continue to do the same. 

To further the insignificance of a conviction, Trump has also managed to cast doubt over the validity of these indictments. Many voters, like Richard Holton, see the charges as political. According to ABC News, 47 percent of the public and 80 percent of Republicans believe the charges against Trump are politically motivated. Even in the wake of a conviction, Trump’s unwavering supporters will likely echo the former president’s claims of Biden weaponizing the Justice Department. A frequent dismissal of the validity of the conviction could eventually taint the event with an aura of insignificance, even for the broader public, leaving the former president, once again, unscathed.

The unpopularity of President Biden—particularly surrounding the economy—is another factor contributing to voters’ dismissal of a conviction. The New York Times/Siena College poll in November 2023 showed concerning numbers for the Biden campaign, with the current president trailing Trump in six key states. The poll revealed that voters better trusted Trump over Biden on the economy with a 59 percent to 37 percent margin - the largest gap of any issue. Additionally, the polls showed nearly twice as many voters prioritizing economic issues over social issues such as abortion or guns. Voters who are struggling financially might see the ‘lesser of two evils’ as the person who fixes the economy, not the person who can stay out of court. Ultimately, it’s voter’s perceptions that decide elections, not reality. As indicated by CNN, Americans are doing much better economically by almost any objective measure than they were when President Biden took office three years ago, but 58 percent of voters say his policies have made economic conditions worse. In a desire to support Trump because of their perception of his economic record, some voters may dismiss reasons why he shouldn’t be president, including a conviction. 

Trump has the opportunity to capitalize on this fraught moment for Biden and ensure that a conviction isn’t enough to end his own presidential hopes. He has assembled a loyal base and undermined the validity of the indictments. Moreover, Trump faces an opponent with weaker voter approval on issues like the economy, which voters will prioritize over a conviction. If Trump is left politically unharmed from a conviction, as it appears he will be, it would show that the American public does not translate legal accountability into political consequences. Trump would be held above the law, and voters would display their prioritization of partisanship loyalty over legal judgments.

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