The Mike Pence-Shaped Hole in the Trump Campaign
The year is 2016 and Donald Trump has burst onto the political scene as a fast-talking firebrand. It is certainly refreshing how he refuses to play along with the typical rules of politics with his headline-grabbing antics and seeming untouchability as the Access Hollywood tape and Stormy Daniels scandal slip into forgotten history. Despite this, he is still a billionaire from New York with no experience in wheeling and dealing in Washington or record of political ideology to speak of. He was unvetted and perhaps too much of a loose cannon– ‘family values' Republicans are still on the fence. Enter Mike Pence, conservative Indiana Governor and self-described “Rush Limbaugh on decaf,” with a squeaky clean track record of hardline views on abortion and his finger on the pulse of both large GOP donors and the evangelical voter base. For the Trump campaign, he was the perfect match that would bring hesitant Republican mainstays to the polls and make the unconventional Trump palatable to the breadbasket of America, and they rode that match all the way to the White House.
The Vice President of the United States has two key duties as outlined in the Constitution - to preside over the Senate and break a tie if needed and to conduct the counting of electoral ballots in a presidential election. It was the second that got then-Vice President Mike Pence in trouble when he was asked to overturn the 2020 election in favor of President Donald Trump and steadfastly refused on the basis that he did not have that authority. Inciting the then-President’s ire over the refusal to demand a recount following his ousting over the tragedy of Jan. 6, 2021, it is unlikely (read: nearly impossible) that Pence will share that ballot space again, leaving the Republican nominee in search of someone to fill those shoes.
Going into a 2024 election cycle, the new Trump campaign is at a completely different place from where they were some eight odd years ago. After four years in office, the people know what to expect from a Trump presidency and the issues he will try to move the needle on, notably trade with China and immigration. We don’t need a Pence-like figure to portray him as a reasonable candidate and any stigma the ‘family values’ Republicans may have felt about openly supporting him in the past has all but disappeared. People today want to see someone who aligns with the brand of Trump without actually being him. Those willing and ready to vote for Trump are not looking for balance on the ticket but rather someone who is in synchrony with the main candidate’s style and echo the ideas that have been successfully resonating with his voter base. Even Pence’s bread and butter - the evangelical voter base - has migrated pretty solidly into this pro-Trump camp without needing the reassurance of a candidate modeled explicitly after their own values. However, when it comes to the actual practice of the job, the nation also requires the second-in-command elect to be someone who can play nice with Democrats behind the scenes and inject the campaign and administration with a feeling that has been sorely and publicly missed from Biden’s camp - the vivacity of youth.
Looking Across the Playing Field
In the past it has been customary, though by no means expected, to turn to peers inhabiting the debate stage when it comes time to pick a vice presidential candidate. President Biden’s choice of then-Senator Harris in 2020 and President Obama’s choice of then-Senator Biden in 2008 both had the benefit of adding almost-but-not-quite household names to the ticket to create a semblance of balance as they approached the electorate. We are then faced with a problem in assessing the 2024 Republican Vice Presidential candidate, as President Trump has been conspicuously absent from the debate stages (missing made-for-TV moments like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie criticizing his absence saying,“If you keep doing that, no one up here is going to call you Donald Trump anymore. They’re gonna call you Donald Duck.”). President Trump has also aggressively criticized some opponents, recently mocking South Carolina Gov. Haley for appearing solo as her husband is deployed overseas (Gov. Haley has been clear that VP is “off the table” for her). Beyond these digressions, it is worth questioning whether any of these prominent Republicans are actually viable choices to fill the rather large hole left by Vice President Mike Pence.
Vivek Ramaswamy–a biotech multimillionaire whose nontraditional background and rise to relevancy paralleled Trump’s–has been perhaps the most recommended running mate. He was quick to compliment President Trump and had many questioning whether he was coyly positioning himself as a running mate before dropping out of the race on Jan. 15 and appearing in support of the Trump campaign immediately after ("He's going to be working with us for a long time," President Trump was quoted as saying to a crowd chanting “VP”). But is Ramaswamy, touted as a mini-Trump in his own right, a credible candidate for running mate? He lacks the foothold in Washington of a career insider, strength in policy-related matters that many single-issue voters want to see, and cannot rally the support of the “family values” voter base that former Vice President Pence brought to the table. Simply put, he does not balance the ballot.
On the other hand is Gov. Ron DeSantis, a highly anticipated candidate of this election cycle who has, by all accounts, been a flop. DeSantis went into the primaries with guns blazing - nationally known record as a “culture warrior” and outspoken critic of pandemic safety precautions who was even said to be leading Trump by double digits in early polling data according to the Journal. Between an infamous failed candidacy announcement rollout on Twitter and a general failure to meet widespread expectations of charisma from the man taking on Disney, one of the biggest employers in his home state, DeSantis went out like a lamb. Trump was quoted saying “Jeff Roe, his ‘chief strategist’ and head of his PAC, ‘Always Back Down,’ after having done major surgery on Ron’s wallet, couldn’t get out of town fast enough,” after DeSantis announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race. This play on the ‘Never Back Down’ Super PAC that supported the Florida governor is by no means a promising indicator for his opponent.
The only seeming former candidate who Trump has indicated is in the running for the nomination is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Senator Scott’s presidential campaign generated little buzz, and he quickly dropped out, endorsing Trump on the heels of the New Hampshire primary. The Senator is known for quoting scripture at his rallies and grew up on the poverty line, often citing his pride in having worked his way up through local government. He is certainly a foil to Trump and has been presented as a favorite of the campaign, though his public appearances have not been particularly memorable as he has largely stood in Trump’s shadow.
The Voters on the Fence
The 2016 campaign selected Pence as a vice presidential candidate in large part for his ability to fill the holes in the Republican voter base by securing those who may have had doubts in voting for Trump. This strategy of leading with the issues to determine the candidate to best balance the ticket would likely lead to a different candidate profile due to the significant shift in issues in the years since. The overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 marked a significant win for hardline conservatives, seen by many in the core Pence voter base as a success orchestrated in great part by Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments. The white evangelical voter base and the broader group of Main Street America and so-called family values Republicans were where Mike Pence did the heavy lifting of securing votes for the Trump campaign in the past. However, the Pew Research Center found that 77 percent of white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2016 but that number jumped to 84 percent in 2020, making a Pence-like VP candidate redundant. It is time for the Trump campaign to look beyond these demographic groups for voters who may be sitting on the fence and can be brought over to the Trump camp by a savvy running mate.
So, who isn’t voting for Donald Trump this November?
The answer to that question, as research has shown time and time again, is college-educated Americans. According to recent polling by Pew Research, 66 percent of Republican voters with a high school education or less support Donald Trump, compared with 37 percent of Republican voters with a four-year college degree and 34 percent of those with a postgraduate degree. The Republicans least likely to vote for Trump at this point are Haley supporters, 68 percent of which say they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination. This is noteworthy in marking a strategy change as Haley supporters in 2024 are significantly demographically different from Pence supporters in 2016.
One of the most significant of these differences is in the importance that the Haley voter base places on compromise with the Democrats. For a candidate who has run every election thus far on a message of absolutism and strength, a prudent vice presidential choice would be one who can speak to these fears of gridlock in Washington–and win moderates along the way. In a highly polarized environment where many Republican lawmakers have had to explicitly align themselves with the former President or declare themselves a moderate, this leaves a limited list of candidates who could fill this role.
Outspoken Trump Supporters Vying for the Spot
As a former president, Trump has the unique opportunity to choose from an array of former cabinet members and White House honchos to choose from as well. Though several of these bridges have been burned since, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas and her tenure as press secretary stands out as a highly effective operative who established relationships with the press. She is the daughter of another former governor, savvy in the processes of Washington in a more traditional way than Trump. She has been earmarked as a strong candidate for the role and as someone who could effectively bridge the divide between the old Republican guard and a new image for the party. Sanders is a familiar face to the public with a history of working across the aisle in private even as she promotes hardline rhetoric in public. Despite this, Sanders has said that she “looks forward to serving as governor for seven years” and supported Trump’s bid for reelection, which many have read as a sign of withdrawing herself from consideration for the vice presidency.
Congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York’s 21st district has been an even more outspoken Trump supporter, taking advantage of his ongoing lawsuits in the state to drum up support. Stefanik was one of 147 Republicans who voted against certifying the 2020 election results, but her record prior to the Trump Administration was remarkably moderate and focused on bipartisanship as she worked on issues particular to her district. Her sudden pivot in hitching herself to Trump’s shooting star was seen by many as a keen political move, though it raises questions about how she would behave once in higher office. Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota has been similarly uninhibited in declaring her allegiance to Trump, saying to Newsmax that she would consider the vice presidency “in a heartbeat”. Noem has had a traditional political background, hopping from state legislature to the U.S. House of Representatives before becoming governor, though it has been largely unremarkable from a policy perspective.
That several of his top contenders vying for the coveted vice presidential nomination are women has not eluded commentators. That they are young - Pence was 57 when he took up the vice presidential office - is perhaps even more important in an election where age has been at the center of so many conversations. To avoid the press that has been plaguing the Biden reelection campaign by placing a shining well-manicured member of the new generation of Republicans on stage next to the 77-year old Trump would be a tactic that is entirely in his wheelhouse. Furthermore, the vice president is a largely ceremonial position. Sure, they theoretically have the president’s ear and the position has historically been a somewhat reliable stepping stone to the presidency, but the fact remains that Congress, in the heat of the lawmaking action, is more so the place to be if you are a young Republican looking to get your name out there. High-profile Republicans of the House and Senate are unlikely to be willing to give up their position in the thick of it to become a figurehead of a potentially erratic administration.
So, state-level officers are Trump’s best bet. Looking at the swing states–states that went to Biden in 2020 but Trump in 2016–of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all but Georgia have Democratic governors. Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia has been critical of Trump and taken a strong stance against the rhetoric that the 2020 election was ‘stolen’, and is by no means an ideal running mate at 60 himself. We are then left with a surprisingly sparse field of suitable potential candidates for the likely Republican vice presidential nominee. While Sarah Huckabee Sanders might be the best fit for the role, her seeming reluctance to join the Trump campaign indicates that it could be a Tim Scott or Elise Stefanik nomination - fresh faces looking to model a meteoric rise to success after Trump.
With a president who would be taking office at 78, it is by no means a stretch to wonder if the role of Vice President will take on a greater level of importance than it has in the past. The unfortunate circumstance of this race is that it presents to the public as an unexciting repetition of the election four years ago. The Trump campaign is likely in search of a candidate who will inject energy into the process while also having enough of a political history to be dependable as a negotiator when the vote is tight. Nevertheless, it is up to the public to audition them as if they were running for president. As the Trump camp refocuses attention on the general election after solidifying his position as the Republican nominee, his selection for vice presidential nominee could make a significant impact on public perception of his campaign and his potential for a path back to the White House.
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